Gift Horse Looked in Mouth, Teeth not so Good

Jay Greene heads up the Department of Education Reform at the University of Arkansas, which has gotten federal research grants in the past. Here’s why he’s now telling the feds to get out of the education research business entirely.

School Choice, Realpolitik, & Brookings

Jay Greene has responded to my review of the new Brookings Institution school choice report which he co-authored, raising a crucial issue for the education policy and research communities. Jay points out that the report is a work of realpolitik rather than scholarship, and as such contends that it must find a compromise between the policies best supported by the evidence and those that have a real chance of being implemented. He makes the related argument that incrementalism is the only realistic path to success.

I agree with Jay that it’s good for analysts to find ways of improving current policy even when the ideal policies are not politically feasible. But these realpolitik recommendations must be clearly distinguished from the ideal policies themselves. Analysts should report both viable compromise reforms AND ideal policies, explaining to policymakers the likely costs and risks associated with the compromises–the reasons why they are inferior. Failing to do this leads to two serious problems:

First, presenting only the compromises robs the public and its elected representatives of crucial information, making it more difficult to build support for the ideal policies and leading to guilt by association when the compromise policies prove disappointing for reasons that should have been — but were not — clearly laid out in advance.

Second, when analysts don’t present their ideal policies and the evidence (if any) on which they are based, there is no way for the public or policymakers to judge the wisdom of their realpolitik compromise recommendations. This is particularly problematic when the analysts’ recommendations conflict with what the available evidence shows to be ideal policy.

As to the need for incrementalism in U.S. policy reform, the evidence is not entirely one-sided. The Emancipation Proclamation did not give slaves a 50 percent share in themselves, rising gradually to 100 percent over time. When women won the franchise, it was not at a discounted rate — one female vote equal to 1/3 or 1/2 of a male vote. They won the right to vote outright. Prohibition was not undone gradually, with beverage categories being re-legalized in order of alcohol content.  I’m sure we could think of other major policy shifts in U.S. history that were not incremental.

In all of the above cases, major social movements were necessary to win the day, and if scholars and advocates who knew better had championed only half-measures instead of the policies they knew to be right, it surely would have delayed the eventual victories. Scholars who know what kind of school choice is necessary to best serve children should clearly advocate such policies, especially in any context in which they also offer any interim recommendations they deem more politically feasible. 

And even if we grant, for the sake of argument, that all school choice policies must be incremental, there are incremental policies already in existence that are highly consistent with ideal policy. Existing scholarship donation tax credits such as those in PA, FL, RI, etc., and personal use education tax credits such as those of Illinois and Iowa, are expanding organically over time. Eventually, as that expansion continues, they could be combined and thus ensure universal access to the education marketplace without needing to impose regulations on private schools that the research shows to be intrusive and counterproductive. By contrast, it is hard to see how introducing federal regulation of virtual schools (a Brookings Report recommendation) moves us close in the direction of the minimally regulated parent-driven markets supported by the evidence.

So, yes, let’s be realistic in our policy recommendations, but let’s also be clear about the ideal policies indicated by the empirical evidence, so that policymakers and the public hear a consistent message about where we need to go.

Thoughts on the New Brookings School Choice Report

A new Brookings Institution report suggests ways for the federal government to promote school choice. On the eve of its release, I voiced some practical and constitutional objections to the idea. Now that the report is out, contributing author Jay Greene asks if I’m still apprehensive. The short answer is yes.

Brookings assembled an impressive group of scholars to write the report, and their education policy recommendations deserve serious consideration. Their goal of ensuring more and better access to more and better educational choices is one that I share, and I hope the following comments will help advance that goal.

Good policy, like good science, is grounded in concrete evidence. Only where evidence is lacking is it wise to fall back on theory. The Brookings report relies on theory in a couple of important areas where extensive evidence is available to show us the way. In particular, the authors acknowledge that U.S. experience with alternative school systems is minimal, but (with a single exception — see below) they do not discuss the vast wealth of evidence from other nations that have more extensive and longer-running experience with school choice systems.                   

Some have argued that we can learn little about school governance from other nations because cultural and economic factors affect educational outcomes too greatly. This criticism does not apply to within-country comparisons of alternative school systems — and virtually all of the literature comparing alternative school systems is within-country. A comparison of government-run, government-funded private, and parent-funded private schools within India, for instance, is not muddied by cultural or economic differences between India and the United States.

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Jay Greene on Barack Obama on Education

In the current City Journal, political scientist Jay Greene observes that “the test that seems to guide the Obama administration’s education priorities is not whether a policy works, but whether it serves a political constituency.”

The president’s actions have forced me to conclude the same thing.

Teachers Union Channels Teen Talk Barbie

“Math class is tough!”  –Teen Talk Barbie

Political scientist Jay Greene bravely decided to read the new NEA paper that is billed as showing that “Teachers Take ‘Pay Cut’ as Inflation Outpaces Salaries.  Average teachers’ salaries declined over the past decade.”

But a funny thing happened when he reviewed the study: it didn’t support the NEA’s own claim. Here’s Jay:

The only problem is that this is not what the data in the NEA report actually show.  In Table C-14 “Percentage Change in Average Salaries of Public School Teachers 1998-99 to 2008-09 (Constant $)” we see that salaries increased by 3.4% nationwide over the last decade after adjusting for inflation…. I can’t find a single table or figure in the report that would justify the headline and claims in the press release.  But when the Ministry of Truth speaks, who are you supposed to believe — them or your lying eyes?

Of course the real reason that public school labor costs have risen so much in the past 40 years is not that salaries have skyrocketed, but that employment has. We now have 70% more staff per student than we did in 1970, and students’ scores are not a whit better for it at the end of high school.

Would the NEA be happy if we gave every teacher a raise but returned to the staff/student ratio of 1970? I doubt it. It would drastically cut the union’s dues revenues.

In any event, the union’s impact through collective bargaining, as I wrote in the Cato Journal recently, appears to be negligible. Where they make a difference is in effective lobbying to preserve the existing government education monopoly. The monopoly is great for public school employee unions, but lousy for kids, parents, and taxpayers.