More Trade News
My colleague Dan Griswold pointed out yesterday some unfortunate editing in the Washington Post. Here are a couple of other trade-related items in the news recently:
I think often the United States has to lead,” Baucus said, noting that what lawmakers come up could be used as a model for other countries to copy.
So the U.S. would saddle its consumers with higher prices in exchange for little benefit environmentally and in the process risk retaliation and alienating countries who it insists are necessary for global cooperation on climate change?
Some leadership.
And it may well be that the Chinese have the jump on the United States here, in any case. They’re proposing to introduce a carbon tax of their own, to prevent double-taxation in the form of carbon tariffs by the developed countries (banned under WTO rules) and to keep the carbon tax revenue — collected, remember, from U.S. consumers! — for themselves, all while seeming to play nice on climate change. I bet those who proposed carbon tariffs are sorry they spoke out now. (HT: Scott Lincicome)
Filed under: Energy and Environment; Trade and Immigration
Max Baucus’s Magic?
Max Baucus says every single Democratic senator will vote for all the taxes, all the private-sector mandates, all the inter-governmental mandates, all the Medicare spending cuts, and all the new private-insurance subsidies that he and Harry Reid are cobbling together. What’s left to discuss?
Baucus may know something I don’t. But here’s what I do know.
- To subsidize Paul, Democrats need to rob Peter. And Peter ain’t gonna like that, whether “Peter” is union members, small businesses, insurance companies, medical-device manufacturers, sick people, or the middle class broadly.
- Of course, the government already does a lot of Peter-robbing and Paul-paying in health care. Democrats could subsidize Paul #2 by cutting subsidies to Paul #1. But again, Paul #1 — whether “he” be seniors, doctors, hospitals, insurance companies, pharmaceutical manufacturers, medical-device manufacturers, home health agencies, skilled nursing facilities, etc. — ain’t gonna like that.
- Members of Congress, including Democratic senators, tend to listen to those Peters and Paul #1s.
- Democrats could try to rob future generations, but they (particularly President Obama) have painted themselves into a corner on that one by promising not to add to the deficit. And with regard to deficit spending, the public appears to be in no mood.
Heck, I’m sure that Baucus knows a lot of things I don’t know. But I doubt he knows any magical incantations that’ll make those challenges go away.
(Cross-posted at Politico’s Health Care Arena.)
Filed under: Cato Publications; Health, Welfare & Entitlements
Three Irrefutable Facts About the Baucus Bill
The Senate Finance Committee votes today on Senator Max Baucus’ version of the health care bill. Cato health care experts have analyzed the bill thoroughly, and point out three vital components to the cost and reach of the legislation:
1) The real cost of the bill is in excess of $2 trillion.
Chairman Max Baucus hoodwinked the CBO with a number of clever budgetary gimmicks, most notably by keeping about half of the cost off the federal books. The bill also assumes Congress will make cuts to Medicare payments, which has never once happened before.
2) The bill contains an enormous middle-class tax hike.
The bill imposes a 40 percent excise tax on health insurance plans that offer benefits in excess of $8,000 for an individual plan and $21,000 for a family plan. Insurers would almost certainly pass this tax on to consumers via higher premiums. As inflation pushes insurance premiums higher in coming years, more and more middle-class families will find themselves caught up in the tax — providing the government with more revenue.
3) The bill creates a national ID program.
The bill contains a paragraph explicitly addressing “eligibility verification.” You must prove who you are to federal entitlement agencies in order to qualify for the bill’s “state exchanges” and tax credits. No ID, no benefits.
Frozen Minds on the Medicare Part B Premium Freeze
This week, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) blocked an attempt by Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) to move — without a recorded vote or CBO score – H.R. 3631, legislation to freeze Medicare Part B premiums. These premiums are automatically deducted from the Social Security checks of seniors, almost all of whom are enrolled in the Medicare Part B (Supplemental Medical Insurance) program.
Social Security recipients will not receive a COLA increase in their monthly checks beginning January 2010 because inflation between October 2008 and September 2009 was negative. But if Part B premiums increase, the dollar amount of their Social Security checks will decrease beginning in January 2010.
What would happen if the Part B premium were frozen for 2010? Seniors would get a double benefit. First they are gaining from a zero reduction in their Social Security checks even though inflation in 2008-2009 was negative. That means the purchasing power of their Social Security checks will be larger (assuming inflation remains low during the 4th quarter of this year).
On top of that, a frozen Part B premium would provide them with more generous Part B coverage because health care prices became more expensive during 2009 relative to other goods and services.
Senator Coburn’s action in blocking the premium freeze is courageous and correct. In a small but important way, it combats the busting of the federal budget by already generous Medicare Part B benefits that seniors receive — three-quarters of which are funded out of federal general revenues (that is, financed out of taxes paid by younger workers).
Baucus Bill’s Spending Cuts Won’t Stick
Why? Just ask Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN):
You can sort of see this coming. The savings from the pharmaceutical companies and the insurance industry, you can kind of count on that because they’re not very popular.
The hospitals are a different story. People, you know, like their hospitals; they tend to trust their hospitals. The hospitals have pledged big savings. I can easily forecast at some point in the not-too-distant future the hospitals coming in and saying, “You know what, this isn’t working exactly the way we expected. Please spare us from this,” and them getting a good hearing in [Congress].
The same thing goes for physicians.
And the pharmaceutical companies.
The Baucus “Failsafe” Is a Failsure
To reassure us all that Baucus 2.0 would not increase the deficit, its author Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) included a “failsafe” provision: if the OMB director determines that the Baucus bill would increase the deficit in the following year, that determination would trigger automatic cuts in the bill’s health insurance subsidies.
Sooooo, would those automatic cuts operate more like the failed Gramm-Rudman-Hollings automatic cuts, or the failed sustainable-growth-rate automatic cuts? Automatic spending cuts never work because today’s Congress cannot bind future Congresses.
The CBO estimates that, if the failsafe were to work, it would require 15-percent cuts in the bill’s new health insurance subsidies from 2015 through 2018. But the agency essentially says the mechanism would be unworkable.
The failsafe is a failsure. Baucus 2.0 would increase the deficit.
Transparent Health Care Legislating?
Will Americans get “quality time” with proposed health care legislation before it passes?
Some say no: The Senate Finance Committee recently turned back an effort to put Chairman Max Baucus’ bill online for 72 hours before the committee’s vote. The Committee is on the wrong side of history.
Transparency shifts power away from the center, so it’s favored by those out of power. It’s no wonder that Republican representative John Culberson, a member of the minority party, is putting H.R. 3400 (a significant health care bill) online for comment, using a tool called SharedBook.
Transparency won’t be a gift from government. It is something we have to take. That’s why I think the action lies in private efforts like OpenCongress, GovTrack, and (my own) WashingtonWatch.com. (Links are to sites’ H.R. 3400 pages.)
The public has a way of conforming their expectations to what’s possible, and transparent law-making is entirely possible today. Closed processes like the Senate Finance Committee’s consideration of health care legislation will not satisfy the public, and it will emerge from the committee with one strike against it irrespective of the merits.
Filed under: Health, Welfare & Entitlements; Telecom, Internet & Information Policy
That Costly Mandate
The Wall Street Journal notes that Sen. Max Baucus’s allegedly moderate health care plan “would increase the cost of insurance and then force people to buy it, requiring subsidies. Those subsidies would be paid for by taxes that make health care and thus insurance even more expensive, requiring even more subsidies and still higher taxes.” Other than that, it’s not so bad. The Journal also digs up a great graphic produced by the 2008 presidential campaign of a little-known Illinois senator named Barack Obama:
And speaking of health care mandates and how much they’re going to cost young people, as the Washington Post was yesterday, I just had lunch with Clark Ruper, program manager for Students for Liberty, who told me he’d be on the Newshour with Jim Lehrer on PBS tonight. In the interview he told them that as a young healthy person he has voluntarily chosen not to purchase health insurance and instead invests in his own savings. And he thinks a lot of young people make such choices and don’t want a government mandate requiring them to buy government-approved insurance. Check it out tonight on PBS.
Filed under: Government and Politics; Health, Welfare & Entitlements
Have the Democrats Outsmarted the Republicans on Health Care?
In their attempt to defeat Obamacare, Republicans have focused their criticism on the public option, painting it as the most objectionable feature of existing proposals. Senator Max Baucus, (D-Mont.), has now proposed a plan without the public option. This leaves the Republicans in an awkward position, especially since Baucus’s plan is projected to cost less than earlier proposals.
If Republicans oppose the Baucus plan, they surely risk the ire of voters who will be told during the mid-term elections, “The Republicans blocked a plan that would have covered the uninsured and reduced the deficit.”
The problem is, the public option was never the crucial issue; instead, it was the mandate to purchase insurance. Once government mandates insurance coverage, it gets to define what constitutes insurance, which means it can ban pre-existing condition clauses and the like. The mandate also”justifies” large subsidies for insurance, to avoid non-compliance with the mandate. So, an individual mandate, which the Baucus plan includes, implies a rapid takeover of the entire health care system by the federal government.
Something like the Baucus plan will pass. It will either cost far more than existing projections, if government administrators fail to impose the restrictions on reimbursements that generate the projected cost savings, or it will involve massive rationing of care.
The Democrats played it perfectly. The Republicans got sucker-punched.
C/P Libertarianism, from A to Z
Filed under: General; Government and Politics; Health, Welfare & Entitlements
Remember When $1 Trillion Was Real Money?
Senate Finance Committee chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) has announced that he has reached agreement on scoring a series of options that will reduce the cost of his health care reform bill to just $1 trillion over the next 10 years. Whew. Now we can all rest easy.
Still, no agreement on the tax increases needed to pay that $1 trillion though.
The Co-op Cop-out
Faced with rising opposition to a so-called “public option” in health care reform, some Democrats are floating the idea of establishing health insurance “co-operatives” as an alternative. Opponents of a government takeover of the health care system should not be fooled.
A “co-op” can be defined as a business owned and controlled by its workers and the people who use its services, in this case presumably the people whom it insures. In that sense, government provision of some sort of legal framework or seed money to help establish health insurance co-ops seems relatively harmless but also relatively pointless. The U.S. already has some 1,300 insurance companies. Adding a few more would accomplish…what?
It is suggested that the “co-ops” would be nonprofits, and therefore would offer better service and lower costs. But many insurance companies, including “mutual” insurers and many “Blues,” are already nonprofit companies. Furthermore, states already have the power to charter co-ops, including health insurance co-ops. In fact, health care co-ops already exist. Health Partners, Inc. in Minneapolis has 660,000 members and provides health care, health insurance, and HMO coverage. The Group Health Cooperative in Seattle provides health coverage for 10 percent of Washington State residents.
If the new co-ops operate under the same rules as other nonprofit insurers, why bother?
And there’s the rub. Supporters of government-run health care have no intention of letting the co-ops be independent enterprises. In fact, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) makes it clear, for example, that the co-op’s officers and directors would be appointed by the president and Congress. He insists that there be a single national co-op. And Congress would set the rules under which it operates. As Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) says, “It’s got to be written in a way that accomplishes the objectives of a public option.”
If a “co-op” is run by the federal government under rules imposed by the federal government with funding provided by the federal government, that is government-run health insurance by another name.
Filed under: Government and Politics; Health, Welfare & Entitlements
The Health Care Battle Begins
Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) has begun circulating drafts of his proposed health care reform legislation. Initial reports, including an op-ed in the Boston Globe by Kennedy himself, suggest that the bill will contain every one of the bad ideas that I outlined in my recent Policy Analysis on what to expect from Obamacare.
Among other things, the Kennedy bill will call for:
- An employer mandate;
- An individual mandate;
- A so-called “Public Option,” a Medicare-like plan that will compete with private insurance;
- The use of comparative-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness research to restrain costs;
- Subsidies for families earning as much as 500% of the poverty level ($110,250 for a family of four).
- Insurance regulation, including guaranteed issue and community rating. (He would also establish a Massachusetts-style Connector); and
- Government-directed health IT.
There’s no indication yet of how much the plan would cost or how Sen. Kennedy plans to pay for it.
The bill will be formally presented to Senator Kennedy’s Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions (HELP) sometime next week. Hearings could be held around June 10, and committee “mark up” could begin on June 17.
Senate Finance Committee chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) is expected to introduce his health care bill shortly before the Finance committee begins its scheduled mark up on June 10.
Meanwhile President Obama’s campaign apparatus is planning rallies and demonstrations around the country to build support for health care reform.
The battle over the future of health care in this country has begun.
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