Weekend Links
- A libertarian primer on the real meaning of the phrase “campaign finance reform.” For more, read John Samples’ book, The Fallacy of Campaign Finance Reform.
- New report shows that Head Start, a sacrosanct (and very expensive) federal education program, doesn’t work. So what should we do about it? Give it more money of course!
- “In his State of the Union address, President Obama proposed spending another $4 billion annually on K–12 public education. He did not mention that state, local, and federal governments already spend well over twice what they did in 1980, or that there has been no discernible improvement in student achievement during that period.” Just sayin’.
- Michael Tanner on Obama’s faith-based boondoggle: “The faith-based initiative was a typical example of Bush-style “big-government” conservatism. It has been co-opted by the Obama administration as another weapon for social engineering.”
Post-State of the Union Links
- Cato experts give Obama’s State of the Union a video fisking.
- Are we watching the History Channel or something? Because this new president sure does sound a lot like the old one.
- Time for the SOTU fact check: Cato experts put some of President Obama’s core State of the Union claims to the test. Here’s what they found.
- Flashback to February 2009: Gene Healy on how “the president talks too much.“
- During this year’s SOTU, President Obama criticized the Supreme Court decision in the Citizens United case. Today’s podcast examines the Court’s ruling.
Obama’s SOTU Export Promise: Bold and Unrealistic
In his State of the Union speech, President Obama vowed to double U.S. exports in five years to (all together now) “create jobs.”
Exports are dandy, and they do support higher-paying jobs, but the president’s pledge was unrealistic and raises false hopes that it will make any dent in the unemployment rate.
U.S. exports have not doubled in dollar terms during a five-year period since the inflation-plagued 1970s, not exactly a golden era for the U.S. economy. In real terms, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, exports have not come close to doubling during any five-year stretch in the past 40 years. The fastest growth in inflation-adjusted exports came in the second half of the 1980s, when they grew by two-thirds from 1985 to 1990. Other periods of robust growth were the mid-1990s, and during the second term of George W. Bush, when five-year export growth approached 50 percent.
Export growth is certainly enhanced by a weaker dollar and lower trade barriers abroad, but the primary driver of export growth is rising GDP and demand abroad, and that is something outside even this president’s direct control. The key to reducing U.S. unemployment is not primarily selling more to growing markets abroad, but selling more in a robustly growing market at home.
Other Obama policies will actually make it more difficult to achieve his export pledge. The president renewed his misguided pledge last night to raise taxes on U.S. multinational companies that “ship jobs overseas.” Yet, as I pointed out in a Free Trade Bulletin last year, U.S.-owned affiliates in other countries sold $4 trillion worth of U.S. branded goods and services in 2006. A large chunk of our exports go to those affiliates to help them make their final products for sale. Forcing U.S. firms to cut back their foreign operations will douse an important source of demand for U.S. exports.
The only major foreign market that has recently doubled its demand for U.S. exports in a five-year span is China. Yet President Obama has needlessly antagonized potential customers in our fourth-largest export market by imposing tariffs on Chinese tire imports and threatening other trade-reducing actions.
We can best promote more open markets abroad by setting a good example ourselves.
Filed under: General; Government and Politics; Trade and Immigration
State of the Union Fact Check
Cato experts put some of President Obama’s core State of the Union claims to the test. Here’s what they found.
THE STIMULUS
Obama’s claim:
The plan that has made all of this possible, from the tax cuts to the jobs, is the Recovery Act. That’s right — the Recovery Act, also known as the Stimulus Bill. Economists on the left and the right say that this bill has helped saved jobs and avert disaster.
Back in reality: At the outset of the economic downturn, Cato ran an ad in the nation’s largest newspapers in which more than 300 economists (Nobel laureates among them) signed a statement saying a massive government spending package was among the worst available options. Since then, Cato economists have published dozens of op-eds in major news outlets poking holes in big-government solutions to both the financial system crisis and the flagging economy.
CUTTING TAXES
Obama’s claim:
Let me repeat: we cut taxes. We cut taxes for 95 percent of working families. We cut taxes for small businesses. We cut taxes for first-time homebuyers. We cut taxes for parents trying to care for their children. We cut taxes for 8 million Americans paying for college. As a result, millions of Americans had more to spend on gas, and food, and other necessities, all of which helped businesses keep more workers.
Back in reality: Cato Director of Tax Policy Studies Chris Edwards: “When the president says that he has ‘cut taxes’ for 95 percent of Americans, he fails to note that more than 40 percent of Americans pay no federal incomes taxes and the administration has simply increased subsidy checks to this group. Obama’s refundable tax credits are unearned subsidies, not tax cuts.”
Visit Cato’s Tax Policy Page for much more on this.
SPENDING FREEZE
Obama’s claim:
Starting in 2011, we are prepared to freeze government spending for three years.
Back in reality: Edwards: “The president’s proposed spending freeze covers just 13 percent of the total federal budget, and indeed doesn’t limit the fastest growing components such as Medicare.
“A better idea is to cap growth in the entire federal budget including entitlement programs, which was essentially the idea behind the 1980s bipartisan Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law. The freeze also doesn’t cover the massive spending under the stimulus bill, most of which hasn’t occurred yet. Now that the economy is returning to growth, the president should both freeze spending and rescind the remainder of the planned stimulus.”
Plus, here’s why these promised freezes have never worked in the past and a chart illustrating the fallacy of Obama’s spending claims.
JOB CREATION
Obama’s claim:
Because of the steps we took, there are about two million Americans working right now who would otherwise be unemployed. 200,000 work in construction and clean energy. 300,000 are teachers and other education workers. Tens of thousands are cops, firefighters, correctional officers, and first responders. And we are on track to add another one and a half million jobs to this total by the end of the year.
Back in reality: Cato Policy Analyst Tad Dehaven: “Actually, the U.S. economy has lost 2.7 million jobs since the stimulus passed and 3.4 million total since Obama was elected. How he attributes any jobs gains to the stimulus is the fuzziest of fuzzy math. ‘Nuff said.”
Filed under: General; Government and Politics; Tax and Budget Policy
Cato Experts Analyze the State of the Union
After live-blogging Obama’s State of the Union Address Wednesday night, Cato experts fact checked the speech, subject by subject.
Cato produced a short video that cuts through the rhetoric and explains what the president really meant:
Video produced by Caleb Brown and Austin Bragg.
An Appalling Breach of Decorum
This morning, Politico Arena invites comments on Obama’s SOTU attack on the Supreme Court.
My response:
I join my Arena colleagues, Professors Bradley Smith and Randy Barnett, in condemning the president’s remarks last night singling out the Supreme Court for its Citizens United decision last week, which overturned law that the government itself admitted would even have banned books. Not only was Obama’s behavior an appalling breach of decorum, but he didn’t even get his facts right. As Brad, former FCC chairman, noted in his Arena post last night, and a bit more fully here, the decision did nothing to upset law that prohibits foreigners, including foreign corporations, from contributing anything of value to an American election. Obama, the sometime constitutional law professor, should have known that. At the least, his aides had plenty of time to research the question before he spoke. This is just one more example of the gross incompetence or, worse, the indifference to plain fact that we’ve seen in this administration.
But it’s the breach of decorum that most appalls. By constitutional design, the Supreme Court is the non-political branch of government. Like members of the military, Supreme Court justices are invited to the State of the Union event, but they do not stand and applaud when the president makes political points that bring others to their feet. For the president to have singled the justices out for criticism, while others around them stood and applauded as they sat there still, is simply demagoguery at its worst. I would not be surprised if the justices declined next year’s invitation. And Obama wanted to change the tone in Washington? He sure has.
Obama’s ‘New’ Industrial Policy
Last night, after the SOTU, Politico Arena asked:
State of the Union: How did he do?
My response:
If you don’t look behind the stirring rhetoric, this was a fine performance — and many of Obama’s supporters will leave it right there. But behind it all is a single theme: People have problems, and government’s job is to solve those problems. Obama and his people, including many in Congress, still don’t get it. The recent elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts were not about government doing more or better. They were not about all the subsidies or jobs programs or green initiatives Obama spoke about tonight. They were about government getting out of the way — about lowering taxes and lifting burdensome regulations so that businesses, large and small, can once again provide the jobs and the prosperity that have been crippled by the kinds of programs Obama was promoting tonight. This was micromanagement from Washington. We need management from Main Street.
Early on in his speech Obama said that many Americans don’t understand “why Washington has been unable or unwilling to solve any of our problems.” Doubtless that’s true. But many more Americans do understand why. And so, as when he said that health care reform was in trouble because he had not explained it more clearly, Obama continues to believe that the problem is with the messenger, not with the message. Fortunately, we have elections in this country. I predict that come November the people will make it clear again that we don’t need yet another round of “industrial policy.” We need less of that, and more of what this country is really about — freedom.
Wednesday Links
- Cato experts will live-blog Obama’s State of the Union Address tonight. Join in, submit questions, and watch the speech right here on Cato@Liberty at 9:00 PM EST.
- A quick, ten-point libertarian State of the Union Address.
- One “Great Canard”: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke argues that the Fed’s monetary policy was not responsible for the U.S. housing bubble.
- Podcast: “Obama’s Fiscal Right Fake” featuring Chris Edwards.
A 10-Point, Libertarian, SOTU Address
1. Abandon Obamacare
2. Forget Cap and Trade
3. Reject the Card Check Bill
4. Withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan
5. Legalize Drugs
6. Scrap the tax code and replace with a flat tax
7. Expand free trade and immigration
8. Stop the bailouts
9. Cut spending
10. Cut spending
BONUS - Cut spending
Tuesday Links
- How the right has ‘Avatar’ wrong: “At its core, the movie is about defending property rights — something conservatives should embrace.”
- Americans tuning out the State of the Union: “When Obama had to make way for ‘Lost,’ some lamented the fact that many Americans preferred trash TV over presidential enlightenment. But the public’s lack of interest in the SOTU is actually a sign of political health.”
- Obama’s “mini-me” plan for health care.
- Podcast: “U.S. Should Cash Out of Social Security” featuring Michael D. Tanner.
Obama’s Dilemma
Today Politico Arena asks:
State of the Union: What Should Obama Say?
My response:
Obama’s in a difficult spot: His head tells him to tack right, but his heart’s not in it — and he’s not the first Democrat to be in that spot. That’s brought out today in a CNN Opinion piece, “When liberals revolt,” written by Arena’s (and Princeton’s) Julian E. Zelizer. Tracing similar dilemmas that Johnson, Carter, and Clinton faced, Zelizer shows how they all paid a price for tacking right, which it looks like Obama may do. Johnson faced primary challenges that led him to withdraw from the 1968 race. Carter was challenged by Ted Kennedy. He prevailed; but weakened, he then lost to Reagan in 1980. And Clinton’s move to the center after the disastrous 1994 midterm elections helped him win reelection, Zelizer argues, but it also left him with a thin legislative record on domestic policy.
In short, moving right has its costs, Zelizer claims. Many liberals are “deeply unhappy with the president, believing that he has already drifted too far away from the promises that animated his supporters in 2008.” He’ll need those liberals in 2010 and 2012. Pointing to the “long tradition of Democratic presidents taking the left for granted at a cost to their administrations,” Zelizer notes that they learned “that the ire of the left — a constituency that is very vocal, highly mobilized and politically engaged — can cause enormous damage.”
That it can. But can the left do more than cause enormous damage? In particular: Can it govern? Zelizer cites Ted Kennedy castigating Carter, saying that ”the Democratic Party needed to ’sail against the wind’ of conservative public sentiment by using the federal government to help alleviate social problems.” Fine speechifying. But will it get you (re)elected — much less enable you to govern? The evidence is not encouraging. In fact, the deeper problem the left is facing is that self-identified conservatives in America outnumber liberals by better than two to one. Cambridge may have voted against Scott Brown by 84 to 14, but that just shows how out of touch Harvard is with the rest of Massachusetts — to say nothing of the rest of the country. Obama won not because the country was enthralled with his vague message, but because his opposition, like Clinton’s in 1996, was so uninspiring. In sum, the left’s problem — and Obama’s — is that the country isn’t buying the message, now that it’s clearer. And that’s the heart of the matter.
Cato Experts Live-Blog Obama’s State of the Union Address
President Obama delivered his first official State of the Union Address on Wednesday. Cato experts offered live commentary on the address. You can read their comments below.
Week in Review: A Speech in Cairo, an Anniversary in China and a U.S. Bankruptcy
Obama Speaks to the Muslim World
In Cairo on Thursday, President Obama asked for a “new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world,” and spoke at some length on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Cato scholar Christopher Preble comments, “At times, it sounded like a state of the union address, with a litany of promises intended to appeal to particular interest groups. …That said, I thought the president hit the essential points without overpromising.”
Preble goes on to say:
He did not ignore that which divides the United States from the world at large, and many Muslims in particular, nor was he afraid to address squarely the lies and distortions — including the implication that 9/11 never happened, or was not the product of al Qaeda — that have made the situation worse than it should be. He stressed the common interests that should draw people to support U.S. policies rather than oppose them: these include our opposition to the use of violence against innocents; our support for democracy and self-government; and our hostility toward racial, ethnic or religious intolerance. All good.
David Boaz contends that there are a number of other nations the president could have chosen to deliver his address:
Americans forget that the Muslim world and the Arab world are not synonymous. In fact, only 15 to 20 percent of Muslims live in Arab countries, barely more than the number in Indonesia alone and far fewer than the number in the Indian subcontinent. It seems to me that Obama would be better off delivering his message to the Muslim world somewhere closer to where most Muslims live. Perhaps even in his own childhood home of Indonesia.
Not only are there more Muslims in Asia than in the Middle East, the Muslim countries of south and southeast Asia have done a better job of integrating Islam and modern democratic capitalism…. Egypt is a fine place for a speech on the Arab-Israeli conflict. But in Indonesia, Malaysia, India, or Pakistan he could give a speech on America and the Muslim world surrounded by rival political leaders in a democratic country and by internationally recognized business leaders. It would be good for the president to draw attention to this more moderate version of Islam.
Tiananmen Square: 20 Years Later
It has been 20 years since the tragic deaths of pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square in June 1989, and 30 years since Deng Xiaoping embarked on economic reform in China. Cato scholar James A. Dorn comments, “After 20 years China has made substantial economic progress, but the ghosts of Tiananmen are restless and will continue to be so until the Goddess of Liberty is restored.”
In Thursday’s Cato Daily Podcast, Dorn discusses the perception of human rights in China since the Tiananmen Square massacre, saying that many young people are beginning to accept the existence of human rights independent of the state.
A few days before the anniversary, social media Web sites like Twitter and YouTube were blocked in China. Cato scholar Jim Harper says that it’s going to take a lot more than tanks to shut down the message of freedom in today’s online world:
In 1989, when a nascent pro-democracy movement wanted to communicate its vitality and prepare to take on the state, meeting en masse was vital. But that made it fairly easy for the CCP to roll in and crush the dream of democracy.
Twenty years later, the Internet is the place where mass movements for liberty can take root. While the CCP is attempting to use the electronic equivalent of an armored division to prevent change, reform today is a question of when, not if. Shutting down open dialogue will only slow the democratic transition to freedom, which the Chinese government cannot ultimately prevent.
Taxpayers Acquire Failing Auto Company
After billions of dollars were spent over the course of two presidential administrations to keep General Motors afloat, the American car company filed for bankruptcy this week anyway.
Last year Cato trade expert Daniel J. Ikenson appeared on dozens of radio and television programs and wrote op-eds in newspapers and magazines explaining why automakers should file for bankruptcy—before spending billions in taxpayer dollars.
Which leaves Ikenson asking one very important question: “What was the point of that?”
In November, GM turned to the federal government for a bailout loan — the one final alternative to bankruptcy. After a lot of discussion and some rich debate, Congress voted against a bailout, seemingly foreclosing all options except bankruptcy. But before GM could avail itself of bankruptcy protection, President Bush took the fateful decision of circumventing Congress and diverting $15.4 billion from Troubled Asset Relief Program funds to GM (in the chummy spirit of avoiding tough news around the holidays).
That was the original sin. George W. Bush is very much complicit in the nationalization of GM and the cascade of similar interventions that may follow. Had Bush not funded GM in December (under questionable authority, no less), the company probably would have filed for bankruptcy on Jan. 1, at which point prospective buyers, both foreign and domestic, would have surfaced and made bids for spin-off assets or equity stakes in the “New GM,” just as is happening now.
Meanwhile, the government takeover of GM puts the fate of Ford Motors, a company that didn’t take any bailout money, into question:
Thus, what’s going to happen to Ford? With the public aware that the administration will go to bat for GM, who will want to own Ford stock? Who will lend Ford money (particularly in light of the way GM’s and Chrysler’s bondholders were treated). Who wants to compete against an entity backed by an unrestrained national treasury?
Ultimately, if I’m a member of Ford management or a large shareholder, I’m thinking that my biggest competitors, who’ve made terrible business decisions over the years, just got their debts erased and their downsides covered. Thus, even if my balance sheet is healthy enough to go it alone, why bother? And that calculation presents the specter of another taxpayer bailout to the tunes of tens of billions of dollars, and another government-run auto company.
A National Talk-Show Host with Nuclear Weapons
Over at the DC Examiner, I have a piece tied to President Obama’s address before Congress tonight. It’s called “The President Talks Too Much.” An excerpt:
In recent weeks, the president has been anywhere and everywhere, with a campaign-style blitz of media appearances and town hall meetings. But, hard as it is to imagine in this era of the omnipresent president, there was a time when presidents weren’t seen much and were heard even less. There might be a lesson there for Obama.
Our founding fathers didn’t want a president who’d perpetually pound the bully pulpit. They viewed presidential speechifying as a sign of demagoguery, and thought Congress should take the lead on most matters of national policy. They expected the nation’s chief executive to pipe down, mind his constitutional business, and keep his hands to himself.
The “permanent campaign” that dominates modern presidential politics would have appalled our forefathers. Accepting the 1844 Democratic nomination, James K. Polk described the custom of the time: “the office of president of the United States should neither be sought nor declined.”
When 19th-century candidates spoke publicly, they sometimes felt compelled to apologize, as 1872 Democratic contender Horace Greeley did, for breaking “the unwritten law of our country that a candidate for President may not make speeches.”
The modern ritual of the State of the Union–with members of Congress rising to clap for every outsized promise–has grown weirdly anti-republican. Congressmen and women are members of a coordinate branch, and they ought not to be clapping maniacally like so many members of the Supreme Soviet. (George W. Bush’s last SOTU was interrupted 72 times by applause).
It would be nice if Obama returned to the Jeffersonian tradition of writing out the State of the Union and sending it over by messenger, rather than delivering it in person before Congress assembled. Of course, that’s never going to happen. There is one thing he could do, however, that would endear him to millions of Americans in the viewing public: start the speech with the following words:
“Ladies and Gentlemen: Please hold your applause to the end.”
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